Assessment of the close approach frequency and collision probability for satellites in different configurations of large constellations

The Earth orbital environment is drastically changing due to an intensification of the space activities. In particular, several projects of large constellations, proposed for the next years for communications purpose like global internet access, Internet of Things, or for Earth observations, will lead to the deployment of several thousands of new satellites at an unprecedented rate. It is a crucial challenge for space traffic management, which will deal with a great number of satellite conjunctions, potentially causing a collision with damaging consequences for the constellation itself and the space environment sustainability.In this paper, we investigate the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability for each referenced constellation. For this purpose, we compute the orbital evolution of satellites in different constellations during the lifecycle, from the deployment to the decommissioning, and we apply the CUBE algorithm and the Foster method to assess the collision probability with the background space debris population assuming a constant uncertainty in position. We show the variation of risk defined by the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability as a function of the proposed configuration. In particular, satellites of the Iridium and Kuiper constellation, but also satellite of the Telesat constellation on polar orbits are the most exposed at a collision. Moreover, the decommissioning phase contribute for a major part to the final cumulative collision probability.     

详细化学反应机理对预混丙烷钝体熄火模拟影响

航空发动机熄火预测是重要关键问题之一，湍流和化学反应的非线性相互作用使预测非常困难。本文采用大涡模拟（LES）对湍流进行高精度模拟，采用概率密度函数输运方程湍流燃烧模型（TPDF）耦合JL4、Z66和H73三种化学反应机理，对预混丙烷钝体熄火现象和规律进行研究。JL4的反应机理最简单，反应释热快，局部放热高，火焰宽度大，火焰两侧温度梯度大，燃烧更加趋于稳定，无法模拟出熄火状态。H73机理绝热火焰温度低，火焰温度低，回流区中部OH含量高；在近熄火状态，大量CO被氧化，释放热量过高导致无法模拟出熄火现象。Z66机理可以模拟出火焰正常状态，在低当量比下也可以模拟出熄火状态。本文算例中，局部Da数大于1的区域超过35%则会发生熄火。     

Fault mode probability factor based fault-tolerant control for dissimilar redundant actuation system

This paper presents a Fault Mode Probability Factor (FMPF) based Fault-Tolerant Control (FTC) strategy for multiple faults of Dissimilar Redundant Actuation System (DRAS) composed of Hydraulic Actuator (HA) and Electro-Hydrostatic Actuator (EHA). The long-term service and severe working conditions can result in multiple gradual faults which can ultimately degrade the system performance, resulting in the system model drift into the fault state characterized with parameter uncertainty. The paper proposes to address this problem by using the historical statistics of the multiple gradual faults and the proposed FMPF to amend the system model with parameter uncertainty. To balance the system model precision and computation time, a Moving Window (MW) method is used to determine the applied historical statistics. The FMPF based FTC strategy is developed for the amended system model where the system estimation and Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) are updated at the end of system sampling period. The simulations of DRAS system subjected to multiple faults have been performed and the results indicate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

浅谈高校后勤服务中的安全管理

随着高校后勤社会化改革的不断发展，高校后勤在市场经济的大潮中不断完善、不断发展，与此同时，高校后勤又面临着进一步深化改革、建立新型服务关系和体制机构以及如何加强安全管理的新形势。如何去适应新的形势的要求，如何提高安全管理的水平，就成了摆在我们面前首先要解决的问题，着重分析了高校后勤服务中的安全管理的目的和意义，指出了高校后勤服务活动中常见事故点，分析了安全事故成因，明确了高校后勤服务中的安全管理的任务，对高校后勤安全管理的发展方向进行了探讨。     

基于小波变换的图像低通去噪

提出了一种利用小波变换的多分辨率特性对图像进行低通去噪的方法,系统的阐述了其基本原理和核心算法,并对加噪后的图像实现了低通去噪处理。     

装备维修任务模型研究

首先建立了确定装备维修保障维修任务量模型,在此基础上运用任务安排模型给出了任务数多于维修人员数和维修时间有限两种情况下的处理方法,能比较科学的根据确定的维修任务和维修人员的情况实现对维修任务的分配.     

掠海飞行导弹击水概率的仿真研究

本文对掠海导弹的击水概率问题进行了研究,提出了用均匀设计、Monte—Carlo法和逐步回归法建立击水概率预报公式的仿真方法,并结合某型号的反舰导弹进行计算,得到了满意的结果。本文还利用表观频率和表观频谱的概念,建立起飞航导弹的背景干扰——海浪和阵风的数学模型,并用波叠加法进行了数字仿真。     

QPSK信号相干检测的错误概率计算公式辨析

在各种文献中 ,QPSK信号相干检测错误概率的计算公式和相应的曲线往往互不相同 ,使工程设计者常感困惑。文中对这些差异及其本质作出详细分析 ,以求正本清源     

基于损伤力学的概率疲劳曲线获取方法

文章基于损伤力学方法获得满足疲劳试验的损伤演化方程,推导出一般条件下的理论疲劳曲线以及相对应的理论中值疲劳曲线与理论理想疲劳曲线；然后根据试验数据即可确定理论疲劳曲线中的参量,从而获取疲劳曲线计算公式。通过此计算公式,可以方便地得到一组以初始损伤为参数的疲劳曲线族,继而得到以失效概率为参数的疲劳曲线族,大大降低了所需试验的数量,并为结构抗疲劳设计和寿命估算提供了依据。     

基于可靠性的非金属件备件数模型

研究了结构中非金属件自然老化时的备件数问题。基于反应论模型,考虑环境温度波动,研究了贮存条件下非金属件的老化规律,并应用Monte-Carlo仿真获得了非金属件的老化寿命分布。在此基础上,根据可靠性分析方法,建立了失效更换情况下可更换非金属件的最佳备件数模型,所得模型可以应用于非金属件备件数的理论预估。